Pro-West conspiracy uses extreme nationalists to destabilize Putin
It’s time to take a look at events relating to the Year 2008 Problem from the standpoint of conspiracy theory. Putin’s movement from the Atlantist conspiracy to the Eurasianist conspiracy is causing more and more concern among the Atlantists.
It’s time to take a look at events relating to the Year 2008 Problem from the standpoint of conspiracy theory. Putin’s movement from the Atlantist conspiracy to the Eurasianist conspiracy is causing more and more concern among the Atlantists – we can see this in Russia’s orange opposition and in attitudes to Putin abroad.
There is an Atlantist conspiracy which seeks to disrupt the process of transferring power (succession) from Putin to the next president, or Putin himself remaining in power. These Atlantists – we see them in the Other Russia, and in the West’s anti-Putin stance – are creating a fairly consistent system with the aim of delegitimizing Putin and creating complications for him in 2008. But the openly liberal-democratic Atlantist model has completely exhausted its potential, and cannot be used as a mobilization axis for an uprising of the masses. It can’t even be used for an uprising of the elites, because a substantial proportion of the elites have adapted to Putin in numerous ways, including economically. Thus, in order for the Atlantist conspiracy (the conspiracy of the Other Russia, the orange forces, Mikhail Kasyanov, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Leonid Nevzlin, and Boris Berezovsky) to succeed, they need a social support base. Since the Atlantists have no social base of their own, there’s a problem here: they need to activate somebody else’s social base.
On the other hand, there is an alternative strategy with regard to how this problem will be solved from the standpoint of the diametrically opposed patriotic forces, since 2008 will be an endurance test for the balance between the two conspiracies. Many members of the patriotic camp want to shift the post-2008 political situation even further in the direction of patriotism, changing the percentage ratio in favor of Eurasianism, at the expense of Atlantism.
And here we find a paradoxical situation: the Atlantists, from their side, are moving in the same direction. So a third-level conspiracy comes into play. Its purpose is as follows. The Atlantists, being in the minority, are unable to cause any significant problems for Putin’s succession, because their ideology is incapable of mobilizing a sufficient quantity of socio-political energies. Essentially, they have no lawful force or mandate whatsoever in our society. Their only realistic chance of doing some damage at the moment of transition in 2008 lies in drawing on the broader pool of mass support possessed by the extreme form of the patriotic model. As we see, this conspiracy is precisely what is being implemented now: the conspiracy of an alliance between the Atlantists and extreme nationalists, enabling them to create some real problems for Putin. This idea was announced by Berezovsky as far back as two or three years ago, when he proposed cooperating with ultra-patriotic organizations in order to destabilize Vladimir Putin’s regime. This is the only factor that presents a real danger, because the conspiratorial energies on the side of the pro-patriotic masses is far more powerful, and those masses themselves are far more numerous than the liberals. This is the only way to mobilize a critical mass for anti-Putin protests.
Thus, an interesting model emerges. This is what Berezovsky was talking about when he said that “there is a conspiracy against Putin” and “a coup is being planned.” What is this conspiracy that serves as a focus for Berezovsky’s hopes? It concerns the fact that the patriotic camp within President Putin’s team can see how the balance of patriotism is rising, to the detriment of Atlantism – and they are considering the idea of extending that direction even further. They have the impression that the Atlantist camp (conspiracy) is weakening, so the patriotic side might be able to take 90% or even 100% of all power instantly.
The Atlantists know perfectly well that a drastic increase in the strength of the patriotic camp could provide the destabilization they seek – the destabilization which the liberal camp is unable to produce on its own. And Berezovsky, whose aim is to cause real problems for Putin, is using some not-too-bright members of Putin’s team for this purpose. They are the targets of this fairly sophisticated strategy. The people who are capable of mobilizing the ethnic extreme-nationalist segment of our society aren’t actually aware of their function or the game they are playing. They might honestly believe that their actions are based on patriotic reasoning. However, without really being aware of the balances in socio-political interconnections, they are naturally exaggerating certain proportions. And that’s exactly what the Atlantists want.
Now let’s consider another question: do these conspiracies actually exist? The answer is as follows: it doesn’t matter in the least whether there really are some conspirators who sit down and talk about how to cause trouble for Putin and delegitimize him. However, in order to make a proper assessment of these events and take the right view of them, we need to forget that, and stop asking whether any actual conspirators exist. We’re dealing with trends here: mythological explications of reality, not reality as such. Investigating their factual component is a task for the law enforcement agencies – not for intellectuals, politicians, or political analysts. What we’re talking about is a social myth.
Using the principle of deduction, we can say that if Putin’s team doesn’t include people who act as conductors of the extreme model that leads to creating serious problems during the handover of power, such people would have to be invented – or they must exist. In this case, we’re talking about a kind of deduction principle, not inductive analysis. In other words, we don’t know anything about them – but we know that they must be there.