On the situation in South Ossetia

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Thus, the war in South Ossetia is over. Russia withdraws its troops from the conflict zones including the zone of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. This happens against the background of harsh critique of the actions of Moscow and support of Georgia on the part of NATO, US and European Union. Russia may find itself in isolation. People in the world already do not take it as kindly as before and CIS countries look at Moscow with caution. There is the impression that Russian foreign policy has become a complete fiasco in the CIS. But is this so?

Let us look at the positive acquisitions of Russia after a small war in South Ossetia.

1. Moscow demonstrated political will and ability to defend its geopolitical interests in the CIS with assistance of harsh military measures. Moscow defended its citizens and ability of South Ossetia to become an independent state.

2. Russia did not bomb the pipelines and all Caspian oil would flow to Europe and the US again. It is possible to imagine if a stray projectile hit any of the pipelines. Meanwhile, Russia demonstrated that it was quite capable of provoking an energy crisis in the world. Thus the weight of Russia grew noticeably.

3. Moscow did not pressure its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization to force them to support its actions in public on the international arena. This circumstance can be considered positive too.

4. No matter how the US tried to paint Russia black, Moscow managed to demonstrate the aggressive essence of the regime of Saakashvili to the whole world. There is a hope that international community will evaluate the Georgian authorities adequately.

Negative consequences of the war in South Ossetia for Russia include:

1. Moscow found itself in international isolation.

2. Harsh actions of Moscow may provoke the more rapid entrance of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

3. An attempt is made to question the status of the Black Sea in Crimea.

4. NATO bases may appear on the territory of the CIS.

5. There will be an attempt to internationalize the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

6. There is a hazard of boycotting the Olympic Games in Sochi.

Meanwhile, the main conclusion from what has been stated above is obvious: harsh military measures will not be taken against Russia by the US and NATO. Moscow will not stay in international isolation for long. The energy crisis will make European countries respect Russia again but on a higher level. And most importantly, Russia has finally established its presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia actually making them subjects of the federation.

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